Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. FINDINGS: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. INTERPRETATION: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

From health plan companies to international insurance companies: changes in the accumulation regime and repercussions on the healthcare system in Brazil.

The concentration and internationalization of health plan companies in Brazil gave them a clearly financial face. Based on the need to understand the health care industry's capital accumulation patterns, the current study examines health plan companies' expansion strategies through the classification of their supply and demand characteristics by recent historical periods and an analysis of recent shareholding trends in one of the leading corporations in the Brazilian health care industry. The 1960s to 2000s witnessed changes in the scale of demands for health plans and adherence by companies to long-term accumulation strategies. Beginning in the early 21st century, changes in the shareholding structures of the largest Brazilian company, consistent with the financialization of its accumulation regime, resulted in the rapid multiplication of its capital. Deepening segmentation of the health care system in a context marked by the downturn in the national economy challenges the preservation of public subsidies for private health plans. Resumo: A concentração e internacionalização de empresas de planos de saúde no Brasil conferiram-lhes feição financeira. Considerando a necessidade de compreender os padrões de acumulação desse setor, o trabalho examina estratégias de expansão das empresas de planos de saúde por meio da periodização de atributos da oferta e demanda e exame da trajetória patrimonial recente de um dos grandes grupos do setor. Entre os anos 1960 e 2000, ocorreram alterações na escala das demandas por planos de saúde e adesão das empresas a estratégias de acumulação de longo prazo. A partir do século XXI, as alterações nas estruturas societárias da maior empresa brasileira, compatíveis com o regime de acumulação financeirizada, resultaram na multiplicação de seu capital em um curto intervalo de tempo. O aprofundamento da segmentação do sistema de saúde, em um contexto marcado pela desaceleração da economia, questiona a preservação dos subsídios públicos para os planos privados.

From health plan companies to international insurance companies: changes in the accumulation regime and repercussions on the healthcare system in Brazil / De las empresas médicas a las aseguradoras internacionales: cambios en el régimen de acumulación y repercusiones sobre el sistema de salud en Brasil / Das empresas médicas às seguradoras internacionais: mudanças no regime de acumulação e repercussões sobre o sistema de saúde no Brasil

Abstract: The concentration and internationalization of health plan companies in Brazil gave them a clearly financial face. Based on the need to understand the health care industry's capital accumulation patterns, the current study examines health plan companies' expansion strategies through the classification of their supply and demand characteristics by recent historical periods and an analysis of recent shareholding trends in one of the leading corporations in the Brazilian health care industry. The 1960s to 2000s witnessed changes in the scale of demands for health plans and adherence by companies to long-term accumulation strategies. Beginning in the early 21st century, changes in the shareholding structures of the largest Brazilian company, consistent with the financialization of its accumulation regime, resulted in the rapid multiplication of its capital. Deepening segmentation of the health care system in a context marked by the downturn in the national economy challenges the preservation of public subsidies for private health plans.

Resumen: La concentración e internacionalización de empresas de planes de salud en Brasil les han conferido un carácter financiero. Considerando la necesidad de comprender los padrones de acumulación de ese sector, el trabajo examina estrategias de expansión de las empresas de planes de salud, mediante la periodización de atributos de oferta y demanda y el examen de la trayectoria patrimonial reciente de uno de los grandes grupos del sector. Entre los años 1960 y 2000, se produjeron alteraciones en la escala de las demandas por parte de planes de salud y una adhesión de las empresas a estrategias de acumulación a largo plazo. A partir del siglo XXI, las alteraciones en las estructuras societarias de la mayor empresa brasileña, compatibles con el régimen de acumulación de carácter financiero, resultaron en la multiplicación de su capital en un corto intervalo de tiempo. La profundización de la segmentación del sistema de salud, en un contexto marcado por la desaceleración de la economía, cuestiona la preservación de los subsidios públicos para los planes privados.

Resumo: A concentração e internacionalização de empresas de planos de saúde no Brasil conferiram-lhes feição financeira. Considerando a necessidade de compreender os padrões de acumulação desse setor, o trabalho examina estratégias de expansão das empresas de planos de saúde por meio da periodização de atributos da oferta e demanda e exame da trajetória patrimonial recente de um dos grandes grupos do setor. Entre os anos 1960 e 2000, ocorreram alterações na escala das demandas por planos de saúde e adesão das empresas a estratégias de acumulação de longo prazo. A partir do século XXI, as alterações nas estruturas societárias da maior empresa brasileira, compatíveis com o regime de acumulação financeirizada, resultaram na multiplicação de seu capital em um curto intervalo de tempo. O aprofundamento da segmentação do sistema de saúde, em um contexto marcado pela desaceleração da economia, questiona a preservação dos subsídios públicos para os planos privados.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis in multiple racial and ethnic groups.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies by race/ethnicity in a multiethnic, population-based cohort. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of more than 9 million person-years of observation from the multiethnic, community-dwelling members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California health plan from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. Incidence of MS and risk ratios comparing incidence rates between racial/ethnic groups were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We identified 496 patients newly diagnosed with MS who met McDonald criteria. The average age at diagnosis was 41.6 years (range 8.6-78.3 years) and 70.2% were women. The female preponderance was more pronounced among black (79.3%) than white, Hispanic, and Asian individuals with MS (67.8%, 68.1%, and 69.2%, respectively; p = 0.03). The incidence of MS was higher in blacks (10.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.4-12.4; p < 0.0001) and lower in Hispanics (2.9, 95% CI 2.4-3.5; p < 0.0001) and Asians (1.4, 95% CI 0.7-2.4; p < 0.0001) than whites (6.9, 95% CI 6.1-7.8). Black women had a higher risk of MS (risk ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.27-1.99; p = 0.0005) whereas black men had a similar risk of MS (risk ratio 1.04, 95% CI = 0.67-1.57) compared with whites. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do not support the widely accepted assertion that blacks have a lower risk of MS than whites. A possible explanation for our findings is that people with darker skin tones have lower vitamin D levels and thereby an increased risk of MS, but this would not explain why Hispanics and Asians have a lower risk of MS than whites or why the higher risk of MS among blacks was found only among women.

National and state trends in enrollment and spending for dual eligibles under age 65 in Medicaid managed care.

BACKGROUND: To reduce costs and improve care, states are increasingly enrolling individuals with disabilities in Medicaid managed care. Many states allow or require adults who are dually eligible for Medicaid and Medicare to enroll in these plans. OBJECTIVE: This study (1) quantifies changes in enrollment by managed care arrangement for duals under age 65, between 2005 and 2008 and (2) compares enrollment and spending between dual eligibles and Medicaid-only beneficiaries. METHODS: We used Medicaid Analytic eXtract data to compare the Medicaid enrollment and spending for all-year, full-benefit dual eligibles ages 21-64 with that of Medicaid-only Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and disabled beneficiaries. The study population was classified into 9 types of managed care to quantify enrollment and calculate expenditures by year. RESULTS: Nationwide, the proportion of adult duals in managed care increased from 2005 to 2008, with the expansion of prepaid health plans (PHPs) (31.0%-46.6%), particularly behavioral health PHPs, driving the increase. In 2008, Medicaid-only disabled adults were three times as likely as dual adults to enroll in comprehensive managed care (CMC) (35.1% versus 11.7%). Average Medicaid expenditures per enrollee differed markedly by managed care arrangement and state. CONCLUSIONS: From 2005 to 2008, there was little expansion of CMC among adult duals, while the use of PHPs to cover carved out services increased greatly. New federal initiatives aim to reduce barriers to enrolling duals into comprehensive, integrated managed care. With expanded enrollment, it will be important to monitor enrollment and evaluate whether integration improves care.

March 2013: Medicare Advantage update.

Key Data Findings. (1) From March 2012 to March 2013, rural enrollment in Medicare Advantage (MA) and other prepaid plans increased by over 200,000 enrollees, to more than 1.9 million. (2) Preferred provider organization (PPO) plan enrollment increased to nearly one million enrollees, accounting for more than 51% of the rural MA market (up from 48% in March 2012). (3) Health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollment continued to grow in 2013, with over 31% of the rural MA market, while private fee-for-service (PFFS) plan enrollment decreased to less than 10% of market share. (4) Despite recent changes to MA payment, rural MA enrollment continues to increase.

Saúde: para onde vai a nova classe média / Health: Where is the new middle class

CONASS Debate – Saúde: para onde vai a nova classe média é fruto do seminário. Dividido em capítulos ordenados pela participação dos expositores e dos debatedores durante o evento, o livro traz os textos assinados pelos palestrantes, responsáveis pelo sucesso e riqueza de conteúdo do seminário. No último capítulo, apresentamos a síntese dos debates, feita pela equipe de relatoria do evento

SUS: o desafio de ser único / SUS: the challenge of being single

Ao investigar nosso sistema de saúde – o público e o privado –, este livro propõe alternativa para fortalecer o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) e fustigar o poder econômico do capital financeiro e dos oligopólios. Afinal, segundo Ocké-Reis, esse sistema paralelo reproduz desigualdades sociais, favorece o crescimento do mercado e inviabiliza os preceitos constitucionais da saúde. Enquanto o SUS atravessa uma crise crônica de financiamento, a consolidação dos planos acaba concentrando renda e subtraindo recursos do setor público de saúde. De acordo com autor, o setor privado mais prejudica do que colabora com o setor público, porque o aumento do gasto privado e o fortalecimento do poder econômico corroem a sustentabilidade do financiamento público na arena política, levando a um círculo vicioso, caracterizado por uma queda relativa do investimento na saúde pública. Ocké-Reis, do Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea), defende uma regulação substantiva do mercado pela Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar (ANS), que não pode ter sua atuação ameaçada pela concentração, centralização e internacionalização das operadoras líderes. A ANS deve organizar o mercado na perspectiva do interesse público, impedindo que a assistência à saúde seja convertida em um bem de consumo como outro qualquer.

Negativas de cobertura pelas operadoras de planos de saúde: análise das denúncias de beneficiários encaminhadas à Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar (ANS) / Negative coverage by health plan operators: a review of complaints referred to the beneficiaries of National Health Agency (ANS)

O presente estudo originou-se de meu interesse em investigar aspectos sobre o acesso dos beneficiários às coberturas assistenciais no setor suplementar de saúde brasileiro. O objetivo dessa pesquisa é analisar as negativas de cobertura praticada pelas operadoras, do ponto de vista do item negado (procedimentos, medicamentos, próteses, órteses e materiais especiais), das características do paciente, do tipo de plano adquirido pelo consumidor, do tipo de contratação e da modalidade da operadora, bem como sob a perspectiva da adequação ou não dessas negativas de cobertura às cláusulas dos contratos assinados entre beneficiários e operadoras de planos de saúde. Trata-se de uma pesquisa documental exploratória, de caráter quantitativo, que utilizou informações existentes e disponíveis na Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar. O universo pesquisado correspondeu às denúncias de negativa de cobertura encaminhadas ao Núcleo/RJ, no ano de 2008, pelos beneficiários de operadoras de planos de assistência à saúde sediadas no estado do Rio de Janeiro. Os dados secundários utilizados foram obtidos através do Sistema Integrado de Fiscalização (SIF), sistema eletrônico utilizado para armazenar todos os tipos de denúncias oriundas do Disque ANS, bem como as denúncias dos beneficiários realizadas diretamente aos Núcleos/ANS e aquelas encaminhadas por meio do site da ANS. Como resultado, observou-se que vários foram os motivos alegados pelas operadoras para justificar suas negativas de cobertura assistencial, quais sejam, ausência de rede prestadora (17 por cento), o fato de o procedimento não constar do rol (16 por cento), divergência entre auditor da operadora e médico assistente (9 por cento), procedimento sem cobertura contratual (7 por cento), dentre outros...

This study stems from my interest in investigate the aspects of the beneficiaries' access to health care coverage in the supplemental health care sector in Brazil. The objective of this research is to analyze the coverage denials carried by health care insurance plans from the viewpoint of the item that is denied (procedures, medications, prosthetics, orthotics and special materials), characteristics of the patient, type of plan purchased by the customer, type of contract and the type of health care insurance company model, as well as from the perspective of adequacy or otherwise of such coverage denial to the terms of the contract signed both by the beneficiaries and the providers of health care insurance plans. This is an exploratory data research, based on quantitative aspects, in which was used existing and available information from the National Agency of Supplementary Health. The universe surveyed in this study corresponded to the number of complaints due to coverage denials reported to the Núcleo / RJ, in 2008, from beneficiaries of health care plans located on the State of Rio de Janeiro. The secondary data used in this study, were obtained through the Sistema Integrado de Fiscalização (SIF), the electronic system used to store all kinds of complaints that came to the agency from the ANS Dial, as well as complaints made by the beneficiaries directly to the Núcleo / ANS and those submitted through the ANS site. As result of this research, it was observed that there were several reasons given by the health care plans to justify denials of coverage, namely, the absence of network provider (17%), the fact that the procedure does not appear on the roster (16%), divergence between the auditor of the health insurance company and the physician (9%), procedure without contractual coverage (7%), among others...

Planos de saúde e SUS: uma análise das relações entre o financiamento público e o crescimento do mercado de planos de saúde / Health plans and SUS: an analysis of the relationship between public financing and the growth of the health insurance market

O Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) fruto do processo da Reforma Sanitária brasileira, assegurou princípios universalistas e inclusivos no seu marco legal. Contudo esse sistema vem sendo implementado num contexto adverso, distanciando-se de aspectos fundamentais e sendo desviado por reformas do setor público. Em virtude disto, o SUS possui problemas estruturais e após vinte anos ainda carece de acordos quanto ao seu financiamento. Em paralelo, o mercado de planos de saúde vem sendo incentivado por meio da renúncia fiscal com despesas em caráter privado com a assistência à saúde. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo objetiva compreender as relações entre o financiamento do Sistema Único de Saúde, a renúncia fiscal com despesas com saúde e o crescimento do mercado brasileiro de planos de saúde no período de 1990 a 2008. Trata-se de uma pesquisa qualitativa que se configura um estudo de caso, na qual foi utilizada uma triangulação de fontes de dados tendo como instrumentos de coleta de dados primários - entrevistas e documentos - que foram analisados por meio da técnica de Análise de Conteúdo na perspectiva de Bardin (2004). Foram ainda coletados dados secundários em bases de dados oficiais. Os resultados indicam o crescimento do mercado brasileiro de planos de saúde no período de 1990 a 2008 que está associado ao padrão de financiamento público da saúde, quer seja na forma do financiamento direto do SUS, ou por meio da renúncia fiscal. Os dados obtidos espelham o modo de intervenção do estado brasileiro no setor saúde que se baseia, por um lado, no apoio à iniciativa privada, em que realiza o financiamento público no mercado de planos de saúde por meio dos benefícios tributários, e, por outro lado, na prioridade dada às diretrizes da política macro-econômica, cuja orientação é voltada para a disciplina orçamentária com contenção de gastos sociais, mantendo o equilíbrio fiscal. Desse modo, observa-se que a discussão do crescimento do mercado brasileiro de planos de saúde e suas relações com o financiamento do SUS e com a renúncia fiscal ultrapassam os limites setoriais da política de saúde, devendo ser o tema abordado de forma abrangente sob pena de empobrecer o debate e fragilizar a luta por um sistema público e universal de saúde.(AU)

The National Health System (SUS), revenue of the Brazilian Sanitary Reform process, has assured universalistic principles and inclusiveness in its legal landmark. However this system has been implemented in an adverse environment being distanced itself from fundamental aspects and being diverted by public sector reforms. Because of this, the SUS has structural problems and after twenty years still lacks of agreement about its financing. In parallel, the market for health plans has been encouraged through tax waiver with spending in private patterns with the assistance of health. Accordingly, this study aims to understand the relationship between the funding of the Unified Health System, tax waiver with spending on health and growth of the Brazilian health plans in the period from 1990 to 2008. This is a qualitative research that constitutes a case study, in which we used a triangulation of data sources having as instruments for primary data collection - interviews and documents - which were analyzed by the Content Analysis technique in Bardin's perspective (2004). Secondary data in official databases were also collected. The results indicate the growth of the Brazilian health plans in the period 1990-2008 that is associated with the pattern of health public funding, whether in the form of direct funding of SUS, or through tax waivers. The outcome reflects the mode of the Brazilian state intervention in health sector which is based, on the one hand, on support for private enterprise, which carries out public financing in the market for health insurance through tax benefits, and on the other hand, the priority given to the guidelines of macro-economic policy, the orientation of which is toward the budget discipline with the containment of social spending while maintaining fiscal balance. Thus, it is observed that the discussion of the growth of the Brazilian health plans and their relationships with SUS financing and tax waiver go beyond the sector boundaries of health policy and should be the subject addressed in a comprehensive manner under penalty of depleting the debate and undermining the fight for a health public and universal system.(AU)

Rastreamento e diagnóstico de câncer de próstata / Screening and diagnosis of prostate cancer

Não existem até o momento provas contundentes que a população coberta pelo plano de saúde UNIMED-POA deva ser submetida ao rastreamento sistemático do câncer de próstata com o intuito de reduzir a mortalidade decorrente deste tipo de câncer, uma vez que não existem estudos desenhados no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul que contemplem este aspecto. Recentemente, dois grandes estudos randomizados que visavam a esclarecer se o rastreamento populacional poderia reduzir a mortalidade por câncer de próstata concluíram: em estudo realizado nos Estados Unidos (prostate, lung, colorectal and ovary trial), não houve diferença na mortalidade da população rastreada ou não; no estudo europeu (European randomized of screening for prostate cancer), houve uma redução de 20 por cento da mortalidade da população rastreada em relação à não rastreada. Cabe ressaltar que ambos os estudos apresentaram, entre outros problemas, viés de seleção dos pacientes, onde mais de 50 por cento do grupo teoricamente não rastreado efetivamente realizou exames antes ou durante o estudo. Sendo assim, permanece recomendada realização de rastreamento nas diretrizes da Associação Americana de Urologia, Associação Europeia de Urologia e Sociedade Brasileira de Urologia.

So far, there is no compelling evidence that the local population covered by the health plan UNIMED-POA should be submitted to systematic screening for prostate cancer in order to reduce mortality resulting from this type of cancer, as no studies in Rio Grande do Sul have been performed to address this particular issue. In other countries, two large randomized studies aimed at clarifying whether such screening could reduce mortality from prostate cancer were conducted recently: the prostate, lung, colorectal and ovary trial in the United States, and the European randomized screening for prostate cancer. In the former, there was no difference in mortality between screened and non-screened groups; in the latter there was a 20 percent reduction in mortality in the screened as compared to the non-screened group. It should be highlighted that both studies had many design problems including biased selection of patients, as more than 50 percent of the supposedly non-screened group was in fact submitted to medical tests either before or during the trial. Therefore, screening still should be performed according to the guidelines of the American Association of Urology, European Association of Urology and the Brazilian Society of Urology.

Uma crítica à privatização do sistema de saúde brasileiro: pela constituição de um modelo de proteção social público de atenção à saúde / Critics to the privatization of the Brazilian national health system: for the constitution of a social protection public model of health care

Este trabalho analisa as contradições do processo de implementação do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). Adota se, aqui, a premissa de que, apesar de ser considerado um dos maiores sistemas públicos do mundo, o sistema de saúde brasileiro possui um considerável mercado de planos de saúde que cobre o pólo dinâmico da economia e funciona em detrimento das diretrizes constitucionais do setor da saúde. Tendo em mente a importância de se fortalecer o bloco histórico em defesa do SUS, propõe se a formulação de uma agenda de reforma das instituições do mercado, a partir da concepção de que o domínio privado ocupa funções de Estado, subtrai a natureza pública do SUS e nega o direito social de assistência à saúde, encarnado na Constituição de 1988. (AU)